Kazakhstan's 80% oil export dependence on Russia reflects pipeline constraints
This digest was compiled by AI from multiple sources — links to the originals are below.
Kazakhstan ships 80% of its crude oil exports via Russia, primarily through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system, due to limited alternative routes. This reliance exposes Kazakhstan to geopolitical risks and transit fees, while efforts to diversify face high costs and logistical hurdles.
Pipeline Dominance
The CPC pipeline, which runs from Tengiz to Novorossiysk, handles about 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports, or roughly 1.2 million barrels per day. Alternative routes include the Atyrau-Samara pipeline (also via Russia) and rail shipments to China, which together account for the remaining 20%. Kazakhstan's total oil production in 2025 averaged 1.9 million bpd, with exports making up the bulk.
Diversification Efforts
Kazakhstan has explored routes such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline via Azerbaijan and swaps with Iran, but these options are limited by capacity and cost. The proposed Trans-Caspian pipeline, which would bypass Russia, remains stalled due to environmental concerns and lack of investment. In 2025, Kazakhstan shipped only 100,000 bpd via the BTC pipeline, a fraction of its exports.
Geopolitical Risks
Russia has periodically disrupted CPC operations, citing technical issues or storm damage, as seen in 2022 and 2024. These disruptions caused temporary export drops of up to 30%. Kazakhstan's reliance on Russia for transit gives Moscow leverage, especially amid sanctions on Russian oil. Kazakhstan pays transit fees estimated at $2-3 per barrel to Russia.
Drone Attack on CPC Tanker
On July 7, a tanker carrying Kazakh oil via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) was attacked by drones off the Russian coast. The CPC pipeline transports oil from the Tengiz and Kashagan fields, two of Kazakhstan's three main oil assets.
Pipeline under Ukrainian attack
The CPC pipeline, which carries 80% of Kazakhstan's oil exports, has come under attack from Ukrainian forces. This introduces a new geopolitical risk beyond the Russian disruptions previously reported.
What's Next
Kazakhstan plans to increase oil production to 2.5 million bpd by 2030, which will require additional export capacity. It remains unclear whether new pipeline projects or expanded rail links can reduce dependence on Russia in time.
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Kazakhstan's 80% oil export dependence on Russia reflects pipeline constraints
