Kazakhstan grain harvest to fall 15-20% on drought, strong tenge
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Kazakhstan's grain harvest is forecast to drop 15-20% in 2026 due to drought and a strong tenge hurting exporters, according to industry estimates. The decline could reduce export volumes and strain farm revenues. Analysts warn that global grain prices may not offset the losses.
Drought Impact
Prolonged drought across northern Kazakhstan, the main grain-growing region, has damaged spring wheat and barley crops. The Agriculture Ministry estimates that 1.2 million hectares of crops are in poor condition. Rainfall in May-June was 40% below the long-term average, according to Kazhydromet.
Tenge Pressure
The Kazakh tenge has strengthened 8% against the US dollar this year, making grain exports more expensive for foreign buyers. Exporters report a 12% drop in forward contracts compared to 2025. The National Bank's tight monetary policy has kept the tenge elevated, despite falling oil prices.
Export Outlook
Kazakhstan exported 8.2 million tonnes of grain in the 2025/26 marketing year. The Grain Union forecasts a decline to 6.5-7 million tonnes in 2026/27. Key buyers in Central Asia and Afghanistan may shift to cheaper Russian wheat, traders say.
Wheat Output Halved
The drought has cut Kazakhstan's wheat production by more than half, according to the video. An exceptionally dry summer led to a miserable harvest, with losses described as significant.
Chinese Wheat Varieties Harvested in Kazakhstan
New wheat varieties developed in Yangling, Shaanxi Province, China, are being harvested in Kazakhstan for the first time. This milestone in China-Kazakhstan agricultural collaboration introduces germplasm that originated in Central Asia millennia ago.
What's Next
The government is set to announce a support package for farmers by August 1. It remains unclear whether subsidies or tax breaks will be sufficient to offset the combined impact of drought and currency strength.
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Kazakhstan grain harvest to fall 15-20% on drought, strong tenge
